Global warming: information for the governmental and corporative climatic experts

All climatic experts agree that the observed, positive long-term trend of average surface global temperature (the warming effect) has been the unquestionable fact since XVIII century, and are sure that the warming effect has been caused by the growing emission of greenhouse gases during human industrial and agricultural activity. All fossil fuels, coal especially, have been diagnosed as the primary causes of the unquestionable warming effect. Next, the Kyoto and Paris Climatic Agreements were signed and the signatories undertook obligations about their limits of carbon dioxide emissions. However, many climatic experts noticed that the agreements were the result of the tendentious interpretations of the collected empirical data which were made on the request of nuclear lobby and natural gas suppliers. According to the empirical data, thousands physical factors have significant impact on climatic changes, not only fossil fuels, so the models of warming effect which assume fossil fuels only – are too simplified and prognostically doubtful. This is why President D. Trump advisably decided to withdraw the USA from the hasty Paris Agreement. The very careful decision has been relentlessly criticized by many circles being disoriented by the agreements’ lobbyists and the noisy, manipulated Greens. Thus, the stubborn dispute about human impact on warming effect, and the efficacy of the Kyoto and Paris Agreements has been intensified once again.

The futility of the Kyoto Agreement(climate changes rise in spite of limited CO2 emissions) suggests that the present prognostic models of global warming are deficient and delusive. The studies and simulations of the warming effect have been a part of my altruistic, private activity for global good since 1980s. My studies and simulations disclosed both the primary causes of the global warming, and the intentional withholding the most significant factors from the delusive, present prognostic models, I am afraid. Some globally critical climatic factors were disregarded in the prognostic base of the Paris Agreement, in the interest of nuclear lobby and natural gas suppliers, in my mind. An intentional manipulation explains so basic methodological faults, only. This is nothing new, in the modern history. Plenty of
similar “scientific” manipulations on the order of influent corporations (tobacco, mining, pharmaceutical e.g.), or governmental agendas have occurred since XVIII c, very often.

My methodologically correct, preliminary simulations of the global warming generate both the very unpleasant and optimistic below – forecasts of human impact on climatic changes.

Forecast 1. The average surface global temperature will behave positive exponential trend and will rise much faster, then the present prognostic models predicts, in spite of the Paris Agreement; if the current, suicidal civilization trends will be continued. The most negative, very probable climatic change is the sudden glaciation that occurred many times in the past. The analysis of the impact of the last big pyroclastic volcanic eruptions (the Krakatau and St Helene) on the global climate suggest that only just several times bigger pyroclastic eruptions will cause sudden glaciations. Human accumulated contribution in the warming effect will define the glaciations’ rate and range. The sudden glaciation will be irreversible, initially self accelerating and very slowly stopping process until average global temperature will exceed the threshold value that may be estimated from the data about the last glaciations.

Prof. S. Hawking was a big optimist warning us in 2017, that Humanity will have all century for the exodus from the ruinous Earth. Every one giant pyroclastic volcanic eruption may start the rising glaciation in the temperate zones during several weeks, and cause humanitarian catastrophe by the lack of proper protections for populations. Only Swiss has been ready to protect Swiss population in shelters by many years since 1960s. The scale of the escapes and migrations of nations to equatorial zones will be limited by the lack of free territories and food reserves. Thus, the wars for surviving will be inevitable. In addition, the equatorial zones will not be the safe and agricultural efficient place due to the giant hurricanes caused by the permanently changing sea currents. Finally, only limited population in shelters will survive. The majority of global population will be starved and killed during the wars for surviving. The very pessimistic scenario of Humanity’s unstable future is very probable any time. This is high time to start all possible precautions which will reduce the very probable humanitarian catastrophe, after the Swiss example. The mass shelters, geothermal energy sources, and continual monitoring of global seismic activity will be the best precautions.
The precautions will also be effective in the case of nuclear winter after thermonuclear war.

Forecast 2. The exploitation of geothermal and solar energy will prevent the global warming, exclusively, according to the Our Creator’s concept of the Earth as the incubator of animate matter. The geothermal energy sources will dominate, as the safe, reliable, continuous power sources. The solar energy sources requires energetic buffers due to their heavy dependence on weather and daytime. Hydrogen generators in dessert regions will be the dominant application of solar energy in the future. All combustion and nuclear energy sources feature near the same negative impact on global warming, and differ cytotoxicity only. Their detailed comparison revealed the surprising, concealed fact: nuclear energy is more climatically “dirty” than coal.

The combustion and nuclear sources will put global thermostat out of order, always, so will be the supplementary future energy sources like the hydroelectric and wind power stations today. The hopes for solving both energetic and climatic global problems by nuclear fusion reactors are a naive wishful thinking. Nuclear fusion terawatt reactors will be accessible since 2020s, but their impact on global warming will be the same as the present combustion power plants.

The main global profits from nuclear fusion reactors will be closing the present, obsolete and dangerous, nuclear fission reactors; and new, effective, space and ground defense systems.

The new space defense systems will maintain the Deterrence Equilibrium and global peace.

The second forecast above is equivalent to the very optimistic conclusion: Humanity is able to prevent the humanitarian catastrophe after the probable sudden glaciation, on time, if the present thoughtless, suicidal consumerism, pursuit of profit and uncontrolled growth of global population will be replaced by the new, much more rational style of human life that will respect the feedbacks between Humanity, climate and natural environment, as soon as possible. Many decisive circles see daylight that some great worldview – revolution, the real New Renaissance, is the imperative. The new worldview will be named The Reorientation.©

Published on 19 June, 2017.